A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
